A coronavirus bet with myself!

Forsyth MO. - After looking at some numbers generated by the John Hopkins hospital, I did not bother focusing on the numbers of cases or the recovered,. but rather the number of deaths this disease has caused. Why? Well, the battle fog surrounding those infected is complex and even foggy. One of the biggest effects that's adding new cases have been vastly increased testing. The more people tested the higher the number become. Another factor was linked to the discovery of infectious people who were carriers. People walking around spreading the virus with out showing much in the way of symptoms. Those were the only two we could talk about since about the mid part of March as the following efforts were implemented across much of the US:

1) Closed border policy. No one in or out.
2) Social distancing. People asked to stay 6 feet apart
3) Elimination of large sporting events.
4) Closing of venues where groups like to gather such as bars and restaurants!
5) An intense program of awareness to get people the wash their hands frequently.

These draconian acts should have a very dramatic effect on the rates of newly acquired infections. The result will be a rapid downhill graphic in the long term coupled with the fact that warmer weather (the bane of all viruses) is on our event horizon!

A number I do like to consider, when thinking about the direction of this pandemic, is the total number of people who succumb to the virus or to some secondary complication like pneumonia. That is what is known as a hard number statistically. As such, it should provide us with something to watch as it should begin to flatten out and then begin dropping as the wave passes on by.

I'm betting that on or before the 28th of March, those figure will begin to  take a rather dramatic drop and that by mid April, this whole mess will be behind us, not including the two to three trillion price tag that will have been added to the National Debt.