US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast for 2011-2012

Yes, it's time for the weather forecast for the coming winter of 2011-2012, which I would like to remind everyone, is right around the corner! The following post represents paraphrased and copied wording from information I gleaned off reliable sources. It may or may not be accurate in all regards. I like to post these to see, months from now, just how accurate they were.

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Beginning with trends. Last winter was the coldest in 30 years across many parts of the US. Some eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing many records broken. Temperatures, in general, were below normal for large Midwestern and Eastern cities like New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered records in New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to make January the snowiest ever recorded.

So let me turn to the US winter forecast for 2011/2012.

La Niña cooling the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. (Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns). The changes in global weather patterns originate from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. (The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades). It is considered likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.

Another fly in the ointment is the current low period of solar activity we find ourselves in. Lower levels of solar output act as a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.

Meteorologists, as they consider all of these factors, are currently leaning towards a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter Temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts of the US are also continued to be forecast below average with above average snowfall amounts.

The Pacific Northwest region will not escape as the scientists also predict this region will experience a very severe winter, including the Cascades snow pack which is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of the PDO.

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The bottom line is most everyone may get some measure of extreme weather this coming winter; so get out there and buy yourself a heavy duty snow shovel, or better yet, book an extended stay in the Bahamas!

Note: For anyone with an interest, here is what I wrote about last winter which was based on the Farmer's Almanac.

Mountain Country Auctions with Rick Findley a lot of fun!

I had some spare time on Saturday,September the 10^th and decided it might be fun to attend an auction that was being held on Secluded Acres road in Forsyth, Missouri. The event was attractive to me because it was billed as having lots of guns. I got there about 9AM and yes there were in point of fact, over forty guns laying on tables in the garage. Wow! Most of the firearms were pump action shotguns and they all looked well cared for. There was also one handgun, a left handed grip High Standard .22 caliber automatic that caught my interest. Turned out, when it was finally auctioned in the afternoon that the prices being bid were outside the range of what I was willing to spend.

Still, it was not a wasted trip as I enjoyed talking to folks I haven't seen very often and managed to eat two hotdogs with sodas during the event. Rick Findley was there with his support staff and did an excellent job of calling out items to the crowd. My only problem was that I've never quite grasped the way that a person can call out a bid, and so I kept quiet. While I was there, other items besides guns were handled, I just didn't see anything worth while for me as I already have a basement full of 'nice stuff'.

All in all, the Mountain Country Auctions are worth while if you're looking for a special something at a good price.

It may be a really cold winter!

Well, it’s getting toward the fall of 2011 and one thing is for sure. That means old man winter is not too far off. Before we know it, the sun will be low in the sky. It’ll be getting dark way to soon and my electric meter will be humming away, making my electric company happy.

So, now would be a good time to hit the internet and check up on areas around your home where you can do things that will save you money come the depths of January. I’ve found one of the absolute best things you can do is to make sure there are no holes in the walls that lead directly to the outside. Good places to check are under kitchen sinks and the like. Make sure you also have enough insulation and consider in investing in a small space heater or two.

I have some additional observations at ‘Saving Energy One Watt at a Time’ in case you might be interested!

Shadow Rock Park needs helpers to paint on Sept the 10th!

On what turned out to be a picture perfect day in early September (a high temperature was 79), I packed a light lunch and headed down to Shadow Rock Park in Forsyth, Missouri to see what was going on. I even brought along my bike for a little exercise.

Even though the area where this park is located has been spending most of its time lately under water due to the floods, when I arrived I was still impressed with the extensive recovery efforts. It seems both the city workers and not a few volunteers from the Forsyth Baptist Church had been busy getting the area back up to snuff. I noticed right away that much of the debris, in the form of branches and twigs, had been collected and burned. Even the grass was coming back, poking bravely through a coating of mud that had covered nearly every surface. Now the roads are clear and the due to the efforts of a hard working few the park is beginning to shine again. Another sure sign of recovery was the numerous fishing trailers parked by the bathrooms as you enter the camping side.

I parked next to the Park Attendants RV and was surprised to find Chris Robertson there. Chris is the Manager of Forsyth's Public Services Department (hope I got that right) and is currently doing double duty by watching over the park. He informed me that the park will stay open until either the traffic stops or it gets too cold and they are forced to shut off the water. He then indicated that even after that should hunters want to stay there, the park may be able to offer electrical hookups. In any case they would want to call ahead to make sure.

Chris also informed me they were looking for additional volunteers to do some painting on Saturday, September the 10^th. Anyone who is interested in helping can plan to show up at about 9AM on that date. Otherwise, please make an effort to come down and enjoy all the Shadow Rock Park has to offer!

Demo Derby heralds back to medieval times!

While the average small town demolition derby is certainly no clash of knights in shining armor, it does share some of that same charisma. Back in the middle ages, brave men in heavy armor were helped onto their steeds by a page, so that they might vie for personal honor via the time honored sport of jousting; a process whereby one of the combatants was unceremoniously de-horsed by the other. (I can only guess that the winner then did a mad dance of celebration before riding off to defrock the king’s virginal daughter).

Today, in 20-something, we haven’t changed this rite of manhood very much (sadly there are no virgins), with the exception that our ‘horses’ have been replaced by a jumble of rusting metal on wheels. Creations that rumble and rattle their way across a field of mud, belching fire and smoke, much to the delight of  local citizens. As in days long past, the object is still to bash the hell out of your opponent while maintaining the integrity of your own personal ‘steed’. The winner is literally the last one standing. Crude, very crude!

Still, I must profess that there is a kind of attraction to the spectacle! Perhaps because it really is a spectacle. Some of the best memories, I’ve taken back with me after the dust settled, was not so much the cars crashing together in wild abandon, as it was the expressions on a few of the ‘knights’ faces as they fought valiantly to keep from being de-autoed. Inevitably though, there came that ‘coup-de-ville’ moment when a stalled vehicle’s owner watched helplessly as another hormonally charged contestant gained ramming speed with wheels madly slinging up mud; both knowing that the end of one was nigh. Cool stuff that! And, yet another reason I intend to watch the Demo Derby on September the 10^th at whatever Park it's at!

Don’t Forget: Demolition Derby on Sept the 10th!

Don’t forget to attend the fall Demolition Derby which will be located at Bull Shoals Park last I heard. You’ll note that the Shadow Rock Park is now open again for business and while I hate last minute changes, I think it is a far better location to hold this event (see side by side pictures). That's just my opinion. You might want to check with the Fair Board at 417-546-4277 prior to attending just to make sure of the location.

Late breaking news: Apparently there is a sign posted that is advertising that the event will be held at the Shadow Rock Park arena after all. Cool!

Farmers Market in Forsyth on Saturday, Sept. the 3rd!

This last Saturday, September 3, 2011 things were busy early in Forsyth Missouri as the early bird may not have gotten the worm, but he or she did get some good bargains at the Farmers Market which was set up across from the new Judicial Building on Main Street.

Both these fellas pictured here were named John and they both were from the Cedar Creek area. They were offering bell pepper, squash, zucchini and tomatoes at bargain prices. While I was there, I ran across Rick Finley who was telling me about an auction coming up on September the 10^th at 603 Secluded Acres. I was interested because there will be a lot of guns (see auction flier) for sale there.

Also, in the area, located at major intersections were firemen who were out collecting for MDA. I asked one of them how the collections were compared to last year and he indicated they were up slightly. These guys get up early on a day that they are off work so they can stand around busy intersections in the heat! But, it's for a great cause and I hope everyone, who can, contributes.