Feb 13th weekend to see cold temps and smow!

 

Feb 13th weekend to be cold and snowy!

 

NWS (edited and paraphrased by this site) – A upper (frontal) wave that is currently situated over the central north Pacific will move onshore into the Pacific NW late Friday night then proceed to dig southeast into the southwest U.S. early this coming weekend. Guidance varies, but the mean/median guidance does point to an increasing chance for snow on Sunday and Monday. Hard to be too specific with amounts given where this system initialized, but there is a general agreement concerning the high potential for accumulating snow. System will run into a southwest to northeast baroclinic zone and southwest Missouri will be on the (very) cold side of the zone, with temperatures in the single digits and lower teens, during this time. Initially, precip may fight some dry air with a weaker first wave Sunday/Sunday night, but a second wave (potentially) will bring additional snow on Monday. [How’s that for hedging our bets!]

The forecast snow amounts for now will be inherently somewhat conservative given that it is a model blend. It does yield 3-5 inches from northwest to southeast over the CWFA or County Warning Forecast Area (official). Concerned that the NBM (National Blend of Models) snow ratios are too low, ran a quick snow forecast based on 50th percentile for snow ratio guidance (close to 20:1) which yielded snow amounts about 2-3 inches higher (unofficial). We will definitely need to keep an eye on this system. Given how cold it will be, snow ratios will be high and will easily accumulate on a very cold ground.

A weather roller coaster ride so far!

With an opening shot of snow on Thanksgiving Day followed by a succession of cold incursions from the north, you’d think Mother Nature might be acting a bit snarly and you'd be right. With still more than a week to go before the official start of winter, I’ve already had enough of the cold stuff thank you very much. Unfortunately, no one listens to me.

This coming weekend will keep the downhill trend going as it will warm up slightly by Friday, Dec the 10th, only to be followed by a very rapid plunge into the arctic locker before the end of the weekend. In between, on Saturday, we might just also get a snowflake or two thrown our way. The National Weather Service, while still holding its cards close to its vest, is hinting at a snow event if the storm, which will sweep through the region on Saturday, digs far enough to the south. Any winter precipitation and the form it takes will be a timing event. Unlike some states like Kansas where the geology allows for fairly predictable weather patterns, our climatological location here in SWMO makes weather prediction more an art than science. What is for sure is that by Sunday, it will feel more like January than mid December, as it will struggle to get to the upper twenties with the overnight temperatures in the single digits! Brrr.